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Additional info for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)

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The decision whether to use formal elicitation methods is the responsibility of the project staff. , project staff, the funding agency, regulatory agencies and the public) should be considered in making this decision. , 1990). Because subjective judgment is required for any activity requiring the use of models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of observation, it is important to understand that different results can be expected from different assessment groups. Therefore, in the absence of formal expert elicitation, important assessments should be assigned to a t least two if not more independent groups of assessors to identify potential discrepancies (BIOMOVS, 1993; IAEA, 1995).

The 8 h period with the highest average ozone concentration), and then computing the average of all of the daily averages for the entire ozone season. 'For an example in which it was necessary to divide the problem into two parts so that experts could reliably make probability judgments, see the lead risk assessment (Wallsten and Whitfield, 1986; Whitfield and Wallsten, 1989) that was conducted in 1984 to 1985. , reduced IQ). To obtain probability distributions over IQ decrement, it was necessary to define three components: mean IQ decrement among children not exposed to lead, mean IQ decrement among children exposed to lead, and population standard deviation for IQ levels.

1 ? 2- -r : ! i ! 0 - 1 on^----I;. OSOppm , . *. 060 ppm a . 0% ppll ABCDEF alw ppn Fig. 3. Medians and 90 percent subjective confidence intervals for judgments about the rate for the formation of mild and moderate lesions in individuals Living in Los Angeles for 1 and 10 ozone seasons. 3 displays the medians and central 90 percent subjective confidence intervals for judgments of Experts A through F regarding the probability of formation of mild and moderate lesions after 1 and 10 seasons of ozone exposure among children (and, in some cases, workers) living in Los Angeles (and, in some cases, New York City).

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